Spoiler Golf · Rosewater Growth · September 2026

September ROAS Targets

In-platform targets for Meta and Google, derived from the September line of the Path-to-$1M plan and adjusted for what each platform's attribution actually captures. Platform ROAS is a dial, not the goal — the goal is the blended plan below.

Gross Revenue

$68,700

3.0× Sept 2025 ($22.9k)

Total Ad Spend

$14,857

$495/day · 21.6% of rev

Blended aMER

4.31×

NC revenue ÷ total spend

Target CAC

$75

Max allowable: $203

New Customers

~198

~212 orders · $324 AOV

Step 1 · From plan to platform

How the targets are derived

Not all September revenue belongs to paid media. We carve out what organic and email will do on their own, hold paid accountable for the rest (InPaMER), then translate that into each platform's reported number using an incrementality factor — because Meta over-credits itself and Google Search under-credits itself.

Plan Net Revenue

$66,450

Sept gross $68,700 less discounts & returns

− Organic (20%)

$13,290

Direct, SEO, word of mouth

− Email / SMS (10%)

$6,645

Klaviyo flows & campaigns

= Paid-Owned Revenue

$46,515

70% of revenue paid must create

InPaMER Target

3.13×

$46,515 ÷ $14,857 spend

Step 2 · The targets

In-platform ROAS targets by channel

Channel target = InPaMER ÷ incrementality factor. September spend of $14,857 splits per the plan's mix: Meta 76%, Google 11%, influencer/affiliate 13%.

Primary channel

Meta — 7-day click

$11,300 budget · ~$377/day

≥ 2.6× in-platform ROAS

Incrementality factor120% — over-reports

In-platform CPA≤ ~$120

Purchases (7DC)~94

Scaling channel

Google — Non-brand (PMax / Search)

~$1,600 budget · new spend vs. 2025

≥ 4.2× in-platform ROAS

Incrementality factor75% — under-reports

Why higherClicks miss halo revenue

If running

Google — Brand Search

Carve out of the Google budget only if defended

≥ 5.1× in-platform ROAS

Incrementality factor62% — mostly captured demand

RuleCap brand at ~20% of Google spend

Seeding channel

Influencer / Affiliate

~$1,900 budget · codes + landing links

≥ 3.1× tracked revenue ÷ spend

Incrementality factor~100% (code-tracked)

Grace periodJudge on a 60-day window

Meta 7DC

2.6×

InPaMER (blended paid)

3.1×

Google non-brand

4.2×

Google brand

5.1×

Step 3 · Stress-test the assumption

If the paid share assumption is wrong

The one soft input is how much of revenue paid media must own (we assume 70%). Here's how targets move if organic and email do more or less of the work. First 2–3 weeks of GA4 + Klaviyo data will tell us which column is real.

Paid-owned share of revenue	60% (strong organic)	70% (base case)	80% (paid does more)
Paid-owned revenue	$39,870	$46,515	$53,160
InPaMER target	2.68×	3.13×	3.58×
Meta 7DC target	2.2×	2.6×	3.0×
Google non-brand target	3.6×	4.2×	4.8×
Google brand target	4.3×	5.1×	5.8×

Guardrails

The lines we don't cross

ROAS targets flex with attribution assumptions. These three come straight from the P&L and don't.

Max CAC

$203

Gross margin per order. Above this, every new customer loses cash on the first order. Target CAC is $75 — that gap funds fixed costs and the 10% net income goal.

Break-even blended MER

1.54×

Below 1.54× net revenue per ad dollar, spend destroys contribution margin before a single fixed cost is paid. This is the floor, never the goal.

Spend ceiling

21.6%

Ad spend as % of revenue per the plan. If revenue pace falls behind, spend comes down with it — we don't hold spend flat and pray.

Honest read

Where we are vs. where September needs us

Trailing 4 weeks (Jul 16 – Aug 12) vs. the September plan. Note the plan asks for less weekly spend than we're deploying today — September is an efficiency month, not a scale month. Efficiency first, then scale into Q4.

Blended CAC

$195→$75

Gross MER

1.7×→4.6×

Conversion Rate

0.35%→0.80%

Weekly Spend

$4,425→$3,466

The biggest lever is conversion rate — it has run at less than half the 0.80% plan assumption since late June. Until site CVR recovers, Meta ROAS targets will be hard to hit at any spend level, so landing page and offer work leads the September punch list.

Pacing

What on-track looks like

Cadence	Ad Spend	Gross Revenue	Orders	New Customers
Daily	$495	$2,290	~7	~6.6
Weekly	$3,466	$16,030	~49	~46
September total	$14,857	$68,700	~212	~198

Reviewed weekly against the scorecard. If we're two consecutive weeks below 75% of the revenue pace at full spend, we drop to the spend ceiling rule and rework creative/offer before re-scaling.

Meta at 2.6× in-platform, Google non-brand at 4.2×, everything governed by a 4.31× blended aMER and a $75 CAC. Hit those and September delivers its $68.7k step on the path to $1M — profitably.

Definitions & sources. All plan figures from the Spoiler Goals-First Pro Forma (Path to $1M / 2026 monthly plan, Future State scenario: $1.03M gross, 10% net income). September = $68,700 gross (3× Sept 2025), spend at the plan's 21.6% of revenue. Net revenue applies the model's discount (3.03%) and return (8.27%) rates; new-customer revenue = 96.3% of net. aMER = new-customer revenue ÷ total ad spend (Bridges convention). InPaMER = paid-owned revenue ÷ total ad spend. Incrementality factors are CTC defaults (Meta 7DC 120%, Google non-brand 75%, Google brand 62%); we'll recalibrate once Spoiler has its own holdout or geo data. Organic 20% / email 10% shares are opening assumptions pending a GA4 + Klaviyo source-of-truth pull. Trailing 4-week actuals from the Weekly Scorecard tab. Max CAC = gross margin per order ($203.43 at 64.9% GM). In-platform CPA ≤ $120 assumes ~$313 net AOV.